U.S. Economy Likely Added Jobs at a Moderate Pace in September

Economists believe the U.S. economy added approximately 50,000 jobs in September 2025, reflecting a moderate pace of hiring amid a cooling labor market.

The unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, near a four-year high, suggesting that both labor demand and supply are weakening.

Why Job Growth Is Slowing

Several structural trends are weighing on hiring:

Labor supply has shrunk, in part due to reduced immigration, a shift that economists say has cooled the pool of available workers.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is increasingly displacing entry-level roles, limiting opportunities for recent graduates.

Trade policy uncertainty, particularly related to tariffs, is creating headwinds for small businesses, which historically drive much of the job growth.

Data Delays and Revisions

The report was delayed by a 43-day government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, which disrupted data collection.

A major rebenchmarking by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that 911,000 fewer jobs were added in the 12 months through March than previously reported.

Economists say that, given the downward revision, the labor market’s momentum has significantly slowed.

Implications for Monetary Policy

Some economists believe the Fed could be cautious about further rate cuts, given the fragile labor backdrop.

Because October’s employment report was canceled, the October and November data will be combined into a single report due December 16.

According to experts quoted in the report, a weak September report might influence the Fed’s decision—but the absence of November data before their December meeting complicates the picture.

Expert Views

Sung Won Sohn, economics professor at Loyola Marymount University, said:

“The labor market is clearly slowing … we’re going to be scratching the bottom for a while, but I don’t think we are going into recession.”

Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, commented that the soft pace mostly reflects shifts in labor supply rather than a collapse in demand.