Trump’s Realpolitik Peace Plan: Is Ukraine’s Sovereignty for Sale?

ជ្រូកសុីស្មៅPresident Donald Trump and his negotiators appear to see the war in Ukraine not as a geopolitical crisis but as a high-stakes business deal. Their proposed 28-point peace framework, driven by Trump and his real estate-minded envoy Steve Witkoff, pushes Kyiv to make sweeping concessions — and fast.

At the heart of the proposal: Ukraine would have to cede critical territories to Russia, reduce its military force by about a third, and constitutionally renounce any future NATO membership.

In exchange, the United States promises “security assurances” — but the details remain vague.
The Washington Post

The deal also calls for $100 billion of frozen Russian assets to be tapped for Ukraine’s reconstruction, with a portion managed by a new Ukraine Development Fund.

Ultimately, Trump’s team is pushing for a Thanksgiving — U.S. “Turkey Day” — deadline for Ukraine to accept.

A High-Pressure Strategy

According to reporting, the U.S. is warning that its support for Ukraine could be scaled back if the deal isn’t accepted.

Critics argue that Trump’s urgency reflects transactional politics — treating Ukraine’s future like a deal to be closed, rather than a sovereign nation’s right to determine its own fate.

Ignatius notes that the key players here are not just political but deeply business-oriented. On the U.S. side: Trump and Witkoff. On the Russian side: Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, with strong financial ties.
The Washington Post
Meanwhile, Zelensky is navigating political instability at home, including a high-profile corruption scandal that critics say weakens his negotiating position.

The Risks for Ukraine

The territorial terms are deeply unsettling for Kyiv. The proposal effectively legitimizes Russian control of Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, and freezes front lines in other contested zones like Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
Even as the plan claims to “confirm Ukrainian sovereignty,” these clauses raise serious questions about what sovereignty would look like in practice.

Because the deal prohibits foreign military deployment, Ukraine would not host NATO troops.
The Washington Post
That has raised alarms in Europe, especially since the guarantees offered are not clearly enforceable.
The Washington Post

A Long-Term Gamble

Ignatius draws a parallel with the Korean War armistice: South Korea gave up territory but accepted a long-term U.S. troop presence to ensure security.
The Washington Post
By contrast, under Trump’s plan, Ukraine would lower its military capacity, forgo NATO membership, and rely on opaque guarantees — all while Russia escapes any robust consequence for its aggression.

Perhaps most controversially, the deal offers amnesty. For whom? For Russians, yes — but also potentially for Ukrainians implicated in corruption, a politically explosive point given Zelensky’s current troubles.

Why This Matters