Black Friday 2025 Kicks Off With Strong Momentum — But Deals Are Tamer Than in Past Years
Black Friday 2025 Opens Amid Economic Uncertainty
As Black Friday 2025 began, retail sales kicked off with surprising strength — even though consumers remain cautious amid inflation, weak hiring, and the lingering impact of tariffs on imported goods.
Despite the economic headwinds, major retailers saw steady foot traffic — in some cases exceeding pre-pandemic levels — and early reports suggest the 2025 holiday season could match or even surpass last year’s performance.
Sales Up — But Discounts Are Tamer
Overall spending appears healthy: from November 1 through the weekend leading into Black Friday, total online sales rose about 7.5% compared with last year.
Still, many shoppers found deals less dramatic than in earlier years. The rise of tariffs on goods, especially toys, household items, and other imported merchandise — often produced abroad — has pushed retail prices up, cutting into traditional discount margins.
Some retailers also seem to be deploying discounts more selectively: leaner inventories allow stores to maintain pricing power, meaning shoppers may see smaller markdowns than they expect.
Consumer Behaviour Shifts: Value Over Flashy Deals
Analysts note a change in shopper behaviour: people are increasingly value-conscious, often prioritizing necessities or “smart buys” over big-ticket items or impulse purchases.
Rather than grabbing the latest gadgets or luxury items, many are choosing practical gifts, essentials, or items with enduring value — reflecting broader concerns about household budgets and economic stability.
Retailers Still Counting on a Strong Holiday Season
Forecasts from the National Retail Federation project holiday sales in the U.S. could reach between US$1.01 trillion and US$1.02 trillion this season — roughly a 3.7% to 4.2% increase compared with last year.
While the discounts may not be as steep as in previous years, retailers are banking on continued consumer interest, especially among those looking to make prudent spending choices rather than splurging.
