The weekend box-office landscape has delivered a surprise: Now You See Me: Now You Don’t (the third installment in the “Now You See Me” series) is poised to lead over The Running Man, despite the latter’s heavier marketing push. Hollywood Reporter+1

Early Indicators

On Thursday preview screenings, Now You See Me pulled in about $2.1 million, while The Running Man earned approximately $1.9 millionThese early numbers set the tone for what appears to be a modest but significant lead for the magic-heist film.
The Hollywood Reporter reports that the industry is projecting Now You See Me to land somewhere in the $21 million to $24 million opening-weekend range, with The Running Man now fighting to stay competitive. Hollywood Reporter

Why the Upset?

Several factors may help explain why the smaller-franchise entry is edging out the larger reboot:

• Franchise familiarity: The “Now You See Me” brand has built a consistent identity around slick heists, magic spectacle and charismatic ensemble casts. That familiarity can help turnout.
• Relative novelty vs. reboot fatigue: The Running Man is a reimagining of a cult 1987 film based on a Stephen King novel; reboots can suffer higher expectations or fatigue from audiences.
• Marketing expectations vs. word-of-mouth: While The Running Man carried significant budget and hype, early sentiment hints at more tempered enthusiasm — the preview box-office gap may reflect this.
• Positioning and competition: With multiple films opening at once (including others like Predator: Badlands), the theater-going audience may be divided — the heist film appears to have captured the timing better

Implications

If the weekend projections hold, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t will add another win to its franchise and potentially reshape the short-term box-office narrative. For The Running Man, the risk is missing the No.1 spot and facing questions about its star power, positioning and market resonance.

From a broader perspective, this gives a reminder: even with big budgets and major casts, films built on reboots or familiar IPs still face vulnerabilities — while franchises that maintain consistent brand identity (even if lower-key) can outperform expectations.

Looking Ahead

• The weekend finish will be key: will Now You See Me hold the lead, or will The Running Man claw back?
• Long-term performance: neither film is driving massive pre-release buzz, so staying power (word-of-mouth) will matter.
• Franchise implications: Success for Now You See Me could bolster plans for further sequels or spin-offs. Underperformance for Running Man may complicate future follow-through for the studio