Bills vs. Texans Preview: Odds, Prediction & Picks for Nov. 20, 2025
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The Buffalo Bills (7–3) head into a big Thursday Night Football clash against the Houston Texans (5–5) on November 20, 2025 — and the betting market is signaling a tight but intriguing matchup.
Key Betting Lines
- Spread: Bills –5.5
- Total (O/U): 43.5 points
- FOX Sports Pick: Texans +5.5 against the spread, Over 43.5
- FOX Sports Predicted Score: Texans 26 – Bills 19
What’s Driving the Prediction
- Buffalo’s Offense:
Josh Allen continues to be a dual-threat force. He’s averaging 245.6 passing yards per game and also contributing significantly on the ground. Running back James Cook (968 rushing yards) remains a workhorse in Buffalo’s ground attack. - Texans’ Defensive Strength:
Houston boasts the NFL’s stingiest defense in points allowed (just 16.3 per game) and third-best rankings against both the pass and the rush. That defensive backbone gives them a strong foundation — especially given that Buffalo’s run defense ranks near the bottom of the league. - Quarterback Situation Matters: Meanwhile, Allen is coming off a massive performance, making this a critical test for Houston’s defense.
Alternative Insights & Expert Bets
- Covers.com leans toward a Bills win, predicting a low-scoring game (Bills 20, Texans 16) and suggesting Woody Marks might have a breakout night.
- Goal.com’s betting angle favors the Texans at +5.5, citing Buffalo’s inconsistency and Houston’s defensive edge even with Mills under center.
- Bleacher Nation agrees with the spread lean, showing Texans +5.5 as a good bet based on Buffalo’s mixed performance as a favorite.
Prediction: Why FOX’s Model Picks the Texans
Despite being underdogs, the Texans’ defense gives them a realistic shot to cover. Their ability to stifle both the run and the pass — coupled with Buffalo’s vulnerability on the ground — may keep Buffalo from fully controlling this game. FOX’s Sports AI model predicts a Texans upset, going with +5.5 and expecting the game to finish over 43.5 points.
