NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: BYU Slides as Wisconsin and Saint Louis Rise

With Selection Sunday looming, the NCAA Tournament picture is beginning to sharpen — and fracture — in equal measure.

Few developments have reshaped the bracket conversation more abruptly than the loss of BYU star Richie Saunders, whose torn ACL ended his season and left the Cougars recalibrating at the worst possible moment.

For BYU Cougars, the injury compounds an already uneven stretch. The Cougars had dropped five of six before steadying themselves with narrow wins over Baylor and Colorado, the latter requiring overtime. Even at full strength, BYU struggled against the Big 12’s elite, going 0-4 against the conference’s top tier.

Now, with a road test at Arizona and a looming visit from Iowa State, the Cougars’ résumé faces intense scrutiny. At present, BYU profiles as a No. 6 seed — a difficult placement given the program’s policy of not competing on Sundays, which can complicate bracket logistics. But that line feels fragile.

If the selection committee views the final weeks as evidence of a diminished roster, BYU could slide toward the 8-9 range, turning a manageable first weekend into a perilous coin flip.

The Murky Middle

The uncertainty extends beyond Provo.

Last week was brutal for projected No. 8 seeds, who went a combined 0-8. Clemson and Iowa each dropped a line. Auburn and NC State held steady, largely because the teams chasing them have yet to mount compelling cases.

The middle of the bracket — seeds five through nine — may ultimately produce some of the tournament’s most dangerous teams: talented enough to beat anyone, flawed enough to land outside the protected top four.

Wisconsin’s Quiet Charge

Few programs have surged more convincingly than the Wisconsin Badgers.

Greg Gard’s team has become one of the season’s most statistically intriguing stories, the first squad to notch three wins over top-10 opponents while hitting at least 15 three-pointers in each of those victories. Since a January win at Michigan, the Badgers have found offensive rhythm and late-game poise.

Nick Boyd and John Blackwell have evolved into a complementary backcourt capable of stretching defenses and controlling tempo. Were it not for narrow setbacks against USC and Indiana, Wisconsin might be riding an 11-game winning streak and sitting squarely in top-four-seed territory.

Instead, the Badgers project as a No. 7 seed — the kind no higher seed wants to face in the second round.

Tennessee and Louisville Lurking

The same unease surrounds the Tennessee Volunteers, currently hovering around the No. 5 line. After a lopsided loss at Florida threatened to derail momentum, Tennessee recalibrated behind freshman standout Nate Ament. Two late miscues against Kentucky cost the Volunteers an extended winning streak, but their ceiling remains evident.

Louisville, another No. 5 seed projection, is riding the brilliance of freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr., whose recent two-game stretch — 74 points, 12 rebounds, eight assists — underscored the Cardinals’ volatility and upside. In March, star-driven bursts can tilt entire regions.

Saint Louis: Efficiency and Belief

Perhaps the most fascinating résumé belongs to the Saint Louis Billikens.

At 24-1, Saint Louis lacks the signature wins typically required to crack the top four seed lines. Its only victory over a current tournament team came against Santa Clara, and Quad 1 opportunities have been scarce outside Atlantic 10 play.

But metrics tell a compelling story. The Billikens rank second nationally in effective field goal percentage (61.1%) and first in effective field goal percentage defense (42.7%). In other words, they shoot efficiently — and make life miserable for opponents attempting to do the same.

Remove a narrow loss to Stanford, and Saint Louis would be unbeaten and commanding far louder national attention. Even without that narrative boost, the Billikens look capable of reaching the tournament’s second weekend.

Snapshot Ahead

The selection committee’s forthcoming reveal of its top 16 seeds will offer the clearest signal yet of how these résumés stack up internally. But as February turns toward March, volatility reigns.

BYU’s margin for error has vanished. Wisconsin’s ceiling appears higher by the week. Saint Louis continues to build a statistical case that demands respect.

And in the bracket’s crowded middle, where seed lines blur and momentum matters most, the teams rising now may be the ones still dancing deep into March.