Box Office Preview: ‘Tron: Ares’ Targets $50M Debut as J.Lo’s ‘Spider Woman’ Eyes Sluggish Opening
LOS ANGELES — Can a 40-year-old cult franchise still bring the heat at the box office? That’s the question hanging over Disney’s “Tron: Ares”, the long-awaited third installment in the studio’s digital-world saga, which is aiming for a domestic debut between $45 million and $50 million this weekend.
Opening in over 4,000 North American theaters, “Tron: Ares” is on track to roughly match the opening weekend performance of its predecessor, 2010’s “Tron: Legacy,” which earned $44 million unadjusted for inflation. The original 1982 “Tron,” now regarded as a cult classic for its groundbreaking computer-generated visuals, had a modest debut of $4.7 million before going on to gross $50 million worldwide.
Internationally, “Tron: Ares” is projected to pull in an additional $40 million to $45 million, which could push its global opening between $85 million and $95 million — a strong start, but still far from the massive launches of other modern sci-fi blockbusters.
A Costly Bet on Digital Nostalgia
Directed by Joachim Rønning (“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales”), “Tron: Ares” dives into humanity’s first direct contact with artificial intelligence. The story centers on an advanced program that escapes the digital realm and manifests in the real world.
The film features the return of Jeff Bridges as Kevin Flynn, along with new cast members Jared Leto, Greta Lee, and Evan Peters. Variety’s Peter Debruge praised the film’s stylized visuals but remarked that much of the experience “reads mostly as an exercise in nostalgia.”
Despite the visual spectacle and franchise loyalty, the financial stakes are high. With a production budget reportedly at $180 million, “Tron: Ares” is Disney’s most expensive entry in the franchise to date. While “Legacy” grossed over $400 million globally, the original film barely broke even. Disney is banking on loyal fans and a new generation of sci-fi enthusiasts to keep the digital dream alive.
Box Office Underperformers: J.Lo’s ‘Spider Woman’ and Tatum’s ‘Roofman’
While “Tron: Ares” will dominate this weekend’s box office, it’s a different story for the other major debuts.
Jennifer Lopez’s latest musical drama, “Kiss of the Spider Woman,” is eyeing a disappointing $1.5 million to $3 million from 1,300 screens — a worrying sign for the independently financed remake, which reportedly cost over $30 million to produce.
Directed by Bill Condon, the film is a reimagining of the acclaimed 1985 drama about a gay man imprisoned in Argentina who copes by escaping into elaborate fantasies starring his favorite movie diva. Despite Lopez’s star power and a storied source material, early indicators suggest that audiences aren’t turning out in significant numbers.
The film premiered at Sundance and was picked up by Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions, but poor marketing visibility and mixed audience reception may be contributing to the underwhelming projections. Without a significant awards-season push, “Kiss of the Spider Woman” is unlikely to match even the modest $17 million global haul of the original.
Surprise Sleeper? ‘Roofman’ Looks for Modest Success
Meanwhile, Paramount’s R-rated dramedy “Roofman,” starring Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst, is tracking a more stable launch with an expected $8 million to $12 million from 3,340 theaters.
Directed by Derek Cianfrance (“Blue Valentine”), “Roofman” tells the bizarre true story of a fugitive ex-soldier and thief who hides out in a Toys “R” Us for months. Despite its low-key marketing campaign, the film boasts strong critical reviews — including an 84% on Rotten Tomatoes — and a modest $19 million budget, which could set it up for sleeper success through positive word-of-mouth.
Debruge lauded the film’s lead performances, highlighting the “through-the-roof chemistry” between Tatum and Dunst that elevates the story beyond its quirky premise.
Weekend Outlook
With “Tron: Ares” leading the pack, Disney hopes the sci-fi brand can evolve into a modern box office contender — but the nostalgia-fueled strategy remains a gamble. Meanwhile, indie and mid-budget titles continue to struggle for attention in a marketplace dominated by franchise tentpoles.
“Tron: Ares” opens wide this Friday, and early performance could determine whether the digital world of Tron gets a future — or fades once more into cult obscurity.
