Iraq Votes in High-Stakes Parliamentary Election Amid Deep Public Disillusionment

On 11 November 2025, Iraq will hold its sixth parliamentary election since the 2003 intervention—a vote heavy with symbolism, yet shadowed by skepticism. At stake is the composition of the 329-seat Council of Representatives of Iraq, the shaping of Iraq’s next government and the question of whether long-promised reform will finally take root.

What’s driving this election

The incumbent prime minister, Mohammed Shia al‑Sudani, is seeking a second term. His coalition, the Coalition for Reconstruction and Development, is widely expected to win the most seats—but without a clear majority. That outcome would usher in protracted post-election negotiations among Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish blocs to form a governing alliance.

Iraq’s election is unfolding against a backdrop of serious public disenchantment. Many Iraqis feel that politics remains dominated by entrenched elites, that corruption and poor public services continue unabated, and that large parts of the electorate—especially young people—see little point in voting. In 2021 turnout hit a record low of roughly 41 %. Analysts expect this year’s figure could drop further.
Key features of the vote

Early voting has already taken place for 1.3 million security personnel and approximately 26,000 displaced people, including members of minority communities such as the Yazidis.

A total of 7,744 + candidates (nearly a third women) are contesting this year’s ballot. Women are guaranteed at least 25 % of seats under the election law; nine seats are reserved for religious minorities.

The electoral law reverted to a version favouring larger parties: the country is divided into 18 electoral districts (one per province) with proportional representation under a modified Sainte-Laguë method. That system is viewed by many as constraining independent reformist candidates.

Major challenges ahead

Legitimacy & turnout: With widespread doubts about the fairness of the process—including allegations of vote-buying, misuse of state resources and the recent banning of around 850 candidates—participation and credibility are under attack.

Post-vote fragmentation: Even if al-Sudani’s bloc emerges as the largest, it lacks the seats to govern alone. That means months of coalition-building with divided blocs—Shiite militias turned parties, Kurdish regional parties and Sunni lists—to agree on the next prime minister and cabinet. Stalemate is a real risk.

Regional power plays: Iraq remains a central arena for rival regional influences—particularly the Iran-aligned armed factions and the United States. How the winner approaches the role of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)—a militia network with political ambitions—will be closely watched.
Le Monde.fr

Expectations vs. reality: Many Iraqis view the elections as simply a ritual of elite power-sharing rather than a genuine avenue for reform. One Baghdad resident put it bluntly:

“I’m not going to vote. What have MPs done since 2003 except siphon off state resources while people are starving and young people can’t find jobs?”

What to watch for

Turnout figures: A sharp drop below past levels would signal deeper disengagement and erode the mandate of the incoming legislature.

Bloc totals: How many seats does the main Shiite coalition win? Do reform-minded or independent lists make any meaningful gains?

Coalition formation: Will a stable government emerge quickly, or will months of haggling leave Iraq without meaningful leadership?

Policy direction: The next government must grapple with critical issues: restarting stalled service delivery, curbing corruption, stabilising the economy and negotiating Iraq’s role between Washington and Tehran.