From Tariffs to Tensions: Early 2025
In early 2025, the re‑elected Donald Trump government raised tariffs on imports from China. In response, China imposed new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods — including soybeans.
This triggered a swift slump in soybean demand: many Chinese buyers paused new purchase orders, and U.S. soybean exporters began to experience steep declines in demand.
Price Shock: Soybean Market Reacts
On August 11, 2025, Trump publicly urged China to “quadruple” its soybean orders from the U.S., posting on social media just as a tariff truce neared its expiration. The comments triggered a short‑term rally: U.S. soybean futures jumped about 2.4%.
Yet analysts warned such a surge was unlikely to hold. China — now heavily sourcing from South American producers — had little incentive to quadruple U.S. imports, especially given tariff premiums and competition from cheaper suppliers.
Back to Business — or Not? China’s Mixed Response
At the end of October 2025, after a meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, the two governments announced a tentative agreement: China would resume buying U.S. soybeans, committing to 12 million metric tons (MMT) by year‑end and 25 MMT annually through 2028.
That promise sparked optimism among U.S. farmers and traders, many hoping for a stabilization of demand. iowapbs.org+1 However, as of early November, Chinese purchase orders remained far below pledged levels — with only a small fraction of soybeans confirmed from the latest U.S. harvest.
Fallout: Farmers, Aid and Uncertain Futures
The prolonged slump in exports inflicted heavy strain on many U.S. soybean farmers, who once depended on China as their largest buyer.
In response, the Trump administration unveiled a $12 billion aid package aimed at cushioning farmers hit by the collapse in demand and rising input costs. Trump also urged China to accelerate purchases of U.S. soybeans — but experts warn that without stable demand and a competitive edge against South American suppliers, American growers remain vulnerable.
Why 2025 Could Mark a Turning Point
- China’s shift toward South American soybean suppliers may be durable, not just a reaction to tariffs; this threatens long-term reliance on U.S. exports.
- Even with purchase pledges, Chinese buying so far remains weak — casting doubt on whether their commitments will translate into actual demand.
- The aid package may help U.S. farmers weather the short term, but market uncertainty and global competition continue to make soybeans a risky bet without deeper structural trade resolution
