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August 25, 2026 admin

The latest debate over Strait of Hormuz oil flows has exposed a striking gap between U.S. government estimates and the figures being produced by commercial shipping trackers. While Washington says millions of barrels of crude and petroleum products are still moving through the strategically important waterway, independent tracking firms are recording substantially lower volumes.

The difference is large enough to matter for global energy markets.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. military had helped more than 15 million barrels of crude and oil products leave the Strait of Hormuz on a recent Tuesday. He also said the average flow over a seven-day period was above 8 million barrels per day. Earlier this month, Wright put the seven-day average at about 9 million barrels per day.

Commercial data tell a different story.

Shipping and commodity-tracking companies have estimated that actual flows are closer to between 2 million and 6 million barrels per day. Reuters reported that Kpler’s estimate was around 5 million barrels per day, while the Wall Street Journal found that several commercial trackers could not independently verify the U.S. government’s much higher figures.

The disagreement highlights one of the biggest problems facing energy analysts during the current crisis: How much oil is really getting out of the Persian Gulf?

Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Face a Major Data Problem

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Before the current conflict, it handled roughly a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.

That makes reliable information about Strait of Hormuz oil flows critical for traders, governments and refiners.

Under normal circumstances, analysts can monitor tanker movements using Automatic Identification System, or AIS, signals. These systems broadcast information about a ship’s location, speed and direction.

The current environment is far from normal.

Many tankers are now sailing with their transponders switched off. Others are using routes or operating patterns that make them difficult to identify through conventional tracking systems. Reuters reported that AIS-detected traffic through the strait was approximately 90% below pre-conflict levels during the week ending August 21.

That does not necessarily mean 90% of actual oil movement has disappeared.

Instead, it means analysts have a much harder time seeing what is happening.

Why Tankers Are Difficult to Track

The difference between visible shipping activity and actual oil movement can be substantial.

A very large crude carrier, or VLCC, can transport around 2 million barrels of oil. Missing one large tanker from a tracking dataset can therefore produce a significant difference in estimates.

If several ships switch off their AIS systems, the uncertainty grows rapidly.

The WSJ reported that tankers have been crossing the strait at night with their transponders turned off, making them difficult to monitor through radio signals or satellite-based observations. It also noted that assumptions about tanker loading levels and the periods used to calculate averages can produce different estimates.

This provides a possible explanation for at least part of the gap between Washington’s estimate and commercial tracking data.

However, it does not completely resolve the dispute.

The more important question is whether the additional barrels claimed by U.S. officials can be identified elsewhere in the physical oil market.

The 8 Million-Barrel Question

The central figure in the controversy is the U.S. estimate of more than 8 million barrels per day.

That is an enormous volume.

If the figure is accurate, it would mean that oil shipments through the world’s most important energy chokepoint are functioning at a much higher level than the visible tanker traffic suggests.

Commercial trackers, however, have not been able to reconcile the figure with their observations.

Reuters reported that Kpler’s estimate was around 5 million barrels per day. The WSJ said estimates from commercial tracking firms ranged from roughly 2 million to 6 million barrels per day.

That difference is not a minor statistical variation.

At 8 million barrels per day compared with 5 million, the gap is about 3 million barrels every day. Over a month, that would represent roughly 90 million barrels.

At the lower end of the commercial estimates, the gap becomes even larger.

The final answer may not be known until more cargoes arrive at their destinations and import data become available.

Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Cannot Be Measured by AIS Alone

One important point is that tanker tracking should not be treated as a perfect real-time measurement of oil production or exports.

AIS tells analysts where identifiable vessels are moving. It does not directly measure the amount of oil inside every ship.

Analysts therefore combine several sources.

These can include:

AIS vessel positions
satellite imagery
port loading information
tanker capacity
refinery data
export terminal activity
destination-country import statistics
ship-to-ship transfer information
customs records
pipeline flows
estimates of cargo loading levels

During a conflict, each source can become less reliable.

Ports can change operating schedules. Ships can deliberately hide their positions. Cargoes can be transferred between vessels. And oil can remain in floating storage for extended periods.

As a result, there is no single dashboard capable of instantly revealing the exact volume of oil moving through Hormuz.

Dark Tankers Add Another Layer of Uncertainty

The term “dark” shipping refers broadly to vessels that intentionally or otherwise become difficult to monitor.

Turning off AIS is one way of reducing a vessel’s visibility. Ship operators may have legitimate security reasons for doing so, particularly when vessels face a heightened risk of attack.

But dark shipping also creates a major analytical problem.

A tanker can disappear from public tracking data and later reappear somewhere else. Analysts then have to reconstruct its route using satellite imagery, port calls, photographs, cargo information and other clues.

During the current crisis, that reconstruction has become particularly difficult.

Reuters reported that some vessels crossing Hormuz have switched off their transponders, meaning the available Kpler counts may understate actual traffic.

That is an important caveat.

It means commercial estimates should not automatically be interpreted as proof that the U.S. government is wrong.

At the same time, the existence of dark tankers does not automatically prove that Washington’s much higher estimates are correct.

The missing barrels still need to be accounted for.

Actual Oil Deliveries May Provide the Best Test

The strongest test of the competing estimates will probably come from physical deliveries.

If large volumes of crude really are leaving the Gulf, eventually that oil should show up somewhere.

It may arrive in China, India, other Asian markets or other destinations outside the Gulf. Some barrels may also be transferred offshore before continuing toward their final buyers.

This is why import data could ultimately settle the argument.

Reuters noted that the discrepancy between Wright’s estimate and Kpler’s figures should become clearer once actual import data are available.

The timing matters.

A tanker that leaves the Persian Gulf today may not deliver its cargo to the final buyer immediately. Voyage times, offshore transfers and temporary storage can delay the appearance of the barrels in import statistics.

Therefore, today’s tracking data may not provide the complete picture of today’s physical oil market.

Very Low Ship Traffic Raises More Questions

There is another piece of evidence that makes the dispute particularly striking.

Reuters reported that fewer than 20 commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. Only four vessels crossed on Sunday and 13 on Saturday, compared with 16 on Friday.

For the week ending August 21, 89 vessels exited the strait while 103 entered, according to data cited by Reuters.

The numbers were approximately 90% below pre-conflict AIS-detected traffic levels.

That does not translate directly into an equivalent percentage reduction in oil volumes because individual ships can carry very different amounts of cargo.

Still, it demonstrates how unusual the current situation has become.

The strait is no longer operating like a normal commercial waterway.

U.S. Military Escorts Are Changing the Calculation

The U.S. government says its military has helped facilitate oil shipments through the waterway.

That matters because some shipowners may be willing to accept the risks of crossing Hormuz if they believe U.S. forces can provide additional protection.

Reuters also reported that U.S. military operations have helped facilitate unconventional methods of moving oil, including secretive ship-to-ship transfers.

Those operations could make conventional tracking considerably harder.

A tanker does not necessarily have to sail directly from an export terminal to its final destination. Oil can move between vessels before reaching a port outside the Gulf.

This creates a more complicated supply chain and makes it harder for analysts to attribute every barrel to a specific voyage.

The Refined Fuel Problem May Be More Important

While the argument over crude volumes continues, another problem is becoming increasingly important: refined fuel shortages.

Reuters reported that Asian imports of refined products such as diesel, gasoline and jet fuel were down 21% from levels before the February conflict. The impact has been especially severe in countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

This distinction is crucial.

A country can have access to crude oil but still face shortages of gasoline or diesel if refineries cannot obtain the right crude grades or if transportation costs become too high.

That appears to be part of the current market problem.

Refining margins have risen sharply, indicating tight conditions for refined products. In other words, the immediate economic problem may not simply be the number of barrels leaving Hormuz.

It may be whether those barrels can be converted into the fuels consumers and industries actually need.

Oil Markets Are Watching the Data Carefully

The uncertainty surrounding Strait of Hormuz oil flows is also influencing crude prices.

Oil prices have remained elevated but have not consistently returned to the extreme levels seen during the most severe phases of the crisis. That suggests traders are not fully pricing in a complete collapse of Gulf exports.

Reuters reported that Brent crude remained below its March-April peaks, helped by emergency stock releases, weaker Chinese demand and expectations that some oil is still reaching international markets.

However, those buffers are not unlimited.

Reuters reported that roughly 290 million barrels of a 400-million-barrel emergency release had already been used, while global inventories had also declined.

That creates a potentially dangerous situation.

If actual Hormuz flows are closer to the lower commercial estimates, the market may eventually discover that its available cushion is smaller than expected.

Alternative Routes Are Helping, But They Cannot Fully Replace Hormuz

Gulf producers have been using alternative export routes to reduce their dependence on the strait.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other producers have pipelines and terminals that can move some oil outside the Persian Gulf.

Those routes are valuable because they provide an emergency outlet when Hormuz becomes dangerous.

But their capacity is limited compared with the normal volume that moves through the waterway.

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said the company was still moving discounted crude through Hormuz, while also highlighting plans to expand alternative routes, including the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline.

China is also adapting.

Chinese state-owned shipping companies have shifted some operations outside the Gulf and have used ship-to-ship transfers near Fujairah and Oman to reduce exposure to dangerous chokepoints.

These strategies can reduce the immediate impact of the crisis, but they cannot completely recreate the efficiency of normal Hormuz shipping.

Iran Adds More Pressure on Tankers

The shipping environment became even more complicated after Iran announced restrictions against dozens of tankers.

Reuters reported that Iran had blacklisted 45 tankers and threatened fines, detention or cargo confiscation for vessels accused of violating its transit rules.

The list reportedly includes vessels connected with major shipping companies and Gulf energy producers.

The announcement creates another layer of risk for shipowners.

Even if a vessel can physically cross the strait, its operator must now consider the possibility of legal, financial or security consequences from either side of the conflict.

That can make a voyage economically unattractive even when oil prices are high enough to compensate for some additional costs.

What Happens Next?

The most important development will be better physical data.

As tankers reach destinations, buyers report cargo receipts and import statistics are updated, analysts should gain a clearer picture of how much oil actually escaped the Gulf.

The commercial trackers will also continue reconstructing dark tanker movements.

If they discover a significant number of previously unidentified voyages, the gap with the U.S. estimates could narrow.

If the missing vessels cannot be found and destination data continue to point to much smaller volumes, pressure will grow on the U.S. government to explain how its estimates were calculated.

Either way, the uncertainty itself is significant.

Energy markets depend not only on supply but also on confidence in supply estimates. When traders cannot determine whether millions of barrels are moving, stored or stranded, pricing becomes more difficult.

The Bigger Risk Is the Unknown

The dispute over Strait of Hormuz oil flows is therefore more than a disagreement between Washington and commercial data companies.

It is a test of how accurately the global energy system can measure physical supply during a major geopolitical crisis.

The U.S. government says large volumes are getting through, aided by military operations and unconventional shipping methods. Commercial trackers see far less, although they acknowledge that dark vessels make their measurements incomplete.

Both sides may be capturing part of the truth.

Some oil is clearly moving.

The question is how much.

For now, the answer remains uncertain.

That uncertainty could become more important if inventories continue to decline, refined fuel shortages persist and the conflict around the Strait of Hormuz continues.

The eventual arrival of physical cargoes at international ports may provide the clearest verdict.

Until then, the world’s oil market is left with an unusual problem: millions of barrels may be moving through one of the world’s most important shipping routes, but nobody can confidently account for all of them.

Sources & External References

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Suggested Image Caption:
Oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments.